Across 14 developed-economy countries over the last half-century, we analyze the behavior of inflation once a country’s inflation rate surges past various thresholds and study how long a burst of inflation typically lingers. If history is a guide, inflation can take far longer to return to normal levels than most people realize. “Transitory” inflation is certainly possible, but it is hardly a sensible central expectation. Messaging and policy response from the US Federal Reserve Bank should reflect the relatively high empirical risk that inflation may persist.
At certain times, client mandates encompass competing objectives. Today, the competition is frequently between social and investment objectives. We examine the trade-offs investors must be prepared to make if they seek to construct a deep-value strategy concurrently with applying a carbon reduction constraint.
Vitali Kalesnik, Director of Research, Europe, discusses his research into currently available carbon emissions data with Ari Polychronopoulos, Head of Product Management and ESG. Investors need reliable data to make investment decisions that properly support their ESG-related goals. At the present time, these data fall short of that standard.
Research Affiliates is a global leader in smart beta and asset allocation strategies. Our goal is to provide educational insights that lead to better investor outcomes.