Yield Curve, Banking Risk, and Recession

December 2023
By Campbell Harvey

In the 1980s, Cam Harvey developed a model for predicting future economic growth based on the slope of the term structure. Since its inception, his model has accurately predicted every recession without any false signals. In this video, Cam provides insight into the model's origins. He also delves into the present economic landscape, touching upon inflation, the potential impact of an inverted yield curve triggering a wider banking crisis, and shares his perspective on the likelihood of an impending recession.