Coronavirus Market Conditions
and Long-Term Opportunities


The Risks to a Robust Recovery

August 13, 2020

In this brief Q&A, Cam Harvey outlines seven risks that have the potential to derail the economic path forward. He believes in the possibility of a robust recovery, but prudence dictates going through the exercise of listing the risks to the recovery and assessing their economic and financial implications. 


The COVID-19 Crash and the Abandonment of the Pensioner

June 5, 2020

The COVID-induced crash—notably the crash in interest rates—has boosted the (marked-to-market) unfunded pension obligation for most pension funds by roughly 20% in a single quarter. If we are unable to remedy this problem in relatively short order, how will we close an underfunding gap that has been growing for a generation? By not addressing this shortfall, we are abandoning our pensioners and reneging on the pension promise made by the ERISA legislation passed in 1974.


The Economic Path Forward

May 18, 2020

Cam Harvey, senior advisor and partner at Research Affiliates, addressed the CFA Institute Annual Conference on May 18, 2020, and provided his perspective on the current pandemic-inspired economic slowdown and its likely impact on the US economy. We are able to share his insights with you here.



Investing in the Great Lockdown

May 6, 2020

The shared experience of personal and professional isolation aimed at flattening the curve of COVID-19 infections is leaving its mark on the investment landscape. Jonathan Treussard, Head of Product Management, describes the view from his “bunker” and the empirical guideposts that can help map our investing path forward.


Too Soon? Pandemic Policy Response Raises Risk of Inflation

April 15, 2020

The Fed’s $5 trillion bazooka, helicopter drops of cash, and a tripling of deficits over the next two years imply a future bout of high and volatile inflation unless fiscal policy nimbly pivots to help prevent the toxic side effect of a spike in inflation. Is that expectation realistic?


As Markets Burn

April 6, 2020

Major adjustments in capital markets around the globe have changed our long-term expected return forecasts for the 100+ assets we model. Before the corona crash we forecast long-term real returns for US equities to be only 1% a year. Now new, lower valuations suggest higher returns.


Leading in Uncertain Times

April 2, 2020

Leadership is about establishing direction while also improving, aligning, and motivating the team. In good times, these goals are challenging enough, but in times of uncertainty, where we find ourselves now, it demands flexibility, curiosity about alternative routes, and willingness to solicit input from the diverse perspectives of the team.


The Distinction between a Company and Its Stock Price

April 1, 2020

All companies are getting walloped in the current market. Which stocks are the true bargains, likely to outperform when the market rebounds? Chris Brightman explains that the outlook for a company’s prospects can be very different from the outlook for its stock’s performance.


With Volatility Comes Opportunity

March 30, 2020

Sharp swings, soaring volatility levels, and tumultuous markets are unsettling to most of us, but Rob Arnott explains how patient investors can find opportunities in the pain in order to improve their investment outcomes over a long horizon.


This Too Shall Pass

March 17, 2020

Rob Arnott shares his perspective on the ongoing market crisis. He suggests the time to buy is when investors are at “peak fear.” In the weeks ahead, that point will come and bargains will make themselves self-evident to the disciplined investor. The window of opportunity will be short, but highly rewarding over the longer term.