Final Thoughts

Ten years ago, Research Affiliates launched the Asset Allocation Interactive online tool, making our CMEs freely available to the public. With one full cycle complete, we can see what has worked well and where we can improve. Across asset classes, when grouped by return cohort, AAI’s expectations have largely reflected future returns, and in the last 10 years, they have anticipated the rank order of most realized returns by asset. This amply demonstrates the effectiveness of AAI as a tool in asset allocation and portfolio construction and should counter some of the skepticism around fundamentals-based CMEs. That said, perfecting AAI is an ongoing effort, and our inflation and currencies models clearly warrant further research and refinement. If there’s one thing we realize, decades may seem long, but in the life of the financial markets, they pass by in an instant. With that in mind, we look forward to reporting on AAI’s continued success in 2034.

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