Demographics & Markets

Demographics, GDP Growth & Capital Markets

How Demographics Affect GDP Growth Around the World

As the average age of a workforce rises, its productivity growth rate inevitably declines—and this is one of the key factors affecting economic growth. This interactive tool enables you to follow the path of projected GDP growth in 22 countries.

Aging by Countries & Regions

Population Distribution By Country

Using data from the United Nations, this interactive tool shows the evolving demographic profile of populations by country, region or sub-region, and level of economic development. In each case, the populations you select are stratified by age groups ranging from 0−4 to 70+ over the period from 1950 to 2050.

Comparing Shifting Demographics: Country by Country

Demographic profiles are dynamic but predictable. This interactive tool allows you to compare the distribution of any two countries’ age groups at yearly points in time from 1950 to 2100.

Support Ratios

Life Expectancy at Age 65

How long the average citizen in a given country lives after retiring has public policy as well as economic and investment implications. Populations as well as individuals may be exposed to longevity risk (the risk of outliving their financial resources).

Support Ratios and Changing Retirement Ages

Because countries cannot alter their demographic trajectory overnight, the tolerable support ratio and the normal retirement age are key policy questions. Experiment by seeing the prospective impact of different minimum support ratios (3:1, 4:1, or 5:1) on required retirement ages in the country or region you specify.

Carrying the Weight: Global view of Support Ratios

The support ratio—the number of workers per retiree—changes as the distribution of age groups evolves in a country or region. This graph shows the past or projected support ratio in whichever country and year you choose. The lower panel shows how the selected country’s support ratio changes over time.

Deepen Your Understanding

The Deserted Island PortfolioWhat would a deserted island investment portfolio look like, managed without the distractions of cable news and short-term benchmark comparisons?

Rob Arnott on The Glidepath Illusion​Rob Arnott explains why target-date funds fail to either maximize wealth or minimize uncertainty about future income.
Mind the (Expectations) Gap: Demographic Trends and GDP Demographics provided a tailwind to economic growth during the past 60 years. But those winds are shifting direction.